South China Sea: A UN Framework Foresaw Issues

China has taken dead aim on territorial claims in the South China Sea, which run into often conflicting claims by the Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei. The Third United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea established workable concepts for territorial seas, exclusive economic zones, and a framework for waters under international jurisdiction, including special arrangements for straits which were key for international commerce. The U.S. Coast Guard, Merchant Marine and Navy were all on board with the treaty.

Unfortunately, the foolish Republican, neo-isolationists and a handful of American multinationals, many of which are out of business now, got together and decided that the LOS treaty was not something the U.S. needed or should accept. Predictably, in the South China Sea, territorial claims to outlying islands define the outer boundary from which territorial seas and EEZ's are defined. Without a global framework agreed to by all the major powers, China has seized on the notion of signing individual side deals with the smaller ASEAN players. This is not in the interests of these players nor those of the international community, but it's difficult to see how this gets resolved now in a rational, economic way.

What's at stake here? Potentially rich resources of natural gas, for one. Although the inferred resources need quite a bit of proving out, gas resources are said to rival those of Qatar. Other potential subsea mineral deposits have also been identified in the South China Sea. Secretary of State Clinton can try the Kissinger shuttle diplomacy tack here, but we have no leverage at all. China has already taken the position that any compromise on their claims to outlying islands, which they say date back to 1947, represents an attack on their sovereignty.

Not signing the LOS treaty didn't seem like a big deal a few decades ago, but it was truly an impotant opportunity lost, and we'll eventually find out what some of the costs are in the South China Sea and in other areas.