Friday, September 7, 2012

Grazie Signore Draghi!

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk has the following chart on his blog.  Get out those rose colored glasses from your last Grateful Dead concert, here it is:

Our equity markets are 112.5% above the financial crisis lows.  Investor sentiment, a contrary indicator, is extremely negative, as further evidenced by the continuing outflow from stock mutual funds into bond funds.  Keeping the macro focus paradigm, our markets should be healthy into midweek, when thoughts turn to the next EuroConfab on Thursday. 

What about the "fundamental" side, if that means anything anymore?

This quote is from Reuters,
"In fact, the recent price-to-earnings high was 13.5 in February 2011, just above current levels. If you are of the view that little has changed since then, there is no reason for the ratio to go much higher. That combined with a slowing earnings picture inevitably means lower prices.

"Our view is that the next double digit move in the market is down not up," said Morgan Stanley in a research note.

The analysts, led by equity strategist Adam Parker, believe the S&P 500 will finish the year at 1,214, 15 percent below where it is now."
Slowing earnings and no multiple expansion...hmmm. 

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